Microseismicity data forecast rupture area

Terminal Area Forecast Modernization (TAF-M) Methodology

Paleoseismic interevent times interpreted for an unsegmented earthquake rupture forecast

[1] Forecasters want to consider an increasingly rich variety of earthquake ruptures. Past occurrence is captured in part by paloeseismic observations, which necessarily see threedimensional ruptures only at a point. This has not been a problem before, because forecasts have assumed that faults are segmented, and that repeated ruptures occur uniformly along them. A technique is now required to ...

Characteristics of Microseismicity in the Dv11 Injection Area, Southeast Geysers, California

Microearthquake (MEQ) occurrence surrounding the injection well DV11 in Unit 18 of the Southeast (SE) Geysers is investigated. Seismicity rates are compared to the injection rate, and to flow rates in nearby steam extraction wells, which were monitored during the Unit 18 Cooperative Injection Test in 1994 and 1995. The seismicity rate is seen to mirror both injection and production rates, altho...

Bayesian inversion of pressure diffusivity from microseismicity

We have considered the problem of using microseismic data to characterize the flow of injected fluid during hydraulic fracturing. We have developed a simple probabilistic physical model that directly ties the fluid pressure in the subsurface during the injection to observations of induced microseismicity. This tractable model includes key physical parameters that affect fluid pressure, rock fai...

Risk Analysis Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations: Inferring Probabilities of Scenario Earthquakes from the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis [PSHA, e.g., Cornell (1968); Anderson and Trifunac (1978); McGuire (1977); McGuire (1995)], typically used in risk assessment and hazard mitigation, has so far relied on ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), also called attenuation relations [e.g., the next generation attenuation relations or NGA by Campbell and Bozorgnia (2008); Chiou and Youngs (200...